Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following a much weaker than expected Retail Sales report. The stock markets are showing sizable losses with the Dow down 159 points and the Nasdaq down 26 points. The bond market is currently up 14/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point.
The Commerce Department reported this morning that sales at retail establishments fell 0.4% last month. This was much lower than the 0.1% decline that was expected and indicates that consumer spending is softening. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, today’s report hints that an economy recovery may not be as soon as some analysts had thought. That is good news for bonds and mortgage rates because slowing economic activity makes bonds and mortgage related securities more attractive to investors.
Tomorrow morning also brings us an important economic report with the release of April’s Producer Price Index (PPI). This index helps us measure inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. If it reveals weaker than expected readings, indicating inflation is not a concern at the producer level, we should see the bond and stock markets rally. The overall index is expected to show an increase of 0.1%, while the core data that excludes food and energy prices is also expected to rise 0.1%. A smaller than expected increase in the core data would be ideal for mortgage shoppers.
Also tomorrow will be the release of last week’s unemployment figures by the Labor Department. Last Thursday’s posting showed a sizable drop in new claims for unemployment benefits. Tomorrow’s release is expected to reveal 609,000 new claims were filed, which would be an increase of 8,000. However, this data is not nearly important as the PPI is and will likely not influence bond trading and mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts.
Friday brings us the release of three relevant reports, including the very important Consumer Price Index (CPI). The other two are moderately important to the markets, but the group of three combined can create a large amount of volatility in the markets if they reveal surprising results. But the CPI will be the primary report of the day.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Mortgage Rate Advisory 05/12/2009
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
Tuesday’s bond market has opened down slightly with no important economic news scheduled for release today. The stock markets are showing minor losses with the Dow down 6 points and the Nasdaq down 17 points. The bond market is currently down 4/32, but we will still likely see an improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point due to strength late yesterday.
March’s Goods and Services Trade Balance report was posted this morning, revealing a trade deficit of $27.6 billion. This figure was below forecasts, but since this data is not considered to be highly important, its impact on this morning’s trading has been minimal.
The first important piece of data comes tomorrow morning when April’s Retail Sales report will be released. This is an extremely important report for the financial markets as it measures consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, this data can have a pretty significant impact on the markets. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.1% decline in sales from March to April. A weaker than expected level of sales should push bond prices higher and mortgage rates lower tomorrow. However, a larger increase could fuel bond selling and lead to higher mortgage rates.
Thursday brings us another important report with the release of April’s Producer Price Index (PPI). This index helps us measure inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. If it reveals weaker than expected readings, indicating inflation is not a concern at the producer level, we should see the bond and stock markets rally. The overall index is expected to show an increase of 0.1%, while the core data that excludes food and energy prices is also expected to rise 0.1%. A smaller than expected increase in the core data would be ideal for mortgage shoppers.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Tuesday’s bond market has opened down slightly with no important economic news scheduled for release today. The stock markets are showing minor losses with the Dow down 6 points and the Nasdaq down 17 points. The bond market is currently down 4/32, but we will still likely see an improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point due to strength late yesterday.
March’s Goods and Services Trade Balance report was posted this morning, revealing a trade deficit of $27.6 billion. This figure was below forecasts, but since this data is not considered to be highly important, its impact on this morning’s trading has been minimal.
The first important piece of data comes tomorrow morning when April’s Retail Sales report will be released. This is an extremely important report for the financial markets as it measures consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, this data can have a pretty significant impact on the markets. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.1% decline in sales from March to April. A weaker than expected level of sales should push bond prices higher and mortgage rates lower tomorrow. However, a larger increase could fuel bond selling and lead to higher mortgage rates.
Thursday brings us another important report with the release of April’s Producer Price Index (PPI). This index helps us measure inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. If it reveals weaker than expected readings, indicating inflation is not a concern at the producer level, we should see the bond and stock markets rally. The overall index is expected to show an increase of 0.1%, while the core data that excludes food and energy prices is also expected to rise 0.1%. A smaller than expected increase in the core data would be ideal for mortgage shoppers.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Monday, May 11, 2009
This weeks mortgage market
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
There are several important pieces of economic news scheduled for release this week, but three stand out above the others. There are a total of six reports scheduled, so it can be considered a fairly active week. There is no relevant data due out tomorrow, so expect the stock markets to help drive bond trading and mortgage rates.
March’s Goods and Services Trade Balance report will be released early Tuesday morning. This report gives us the size of the U.S. trade deficit but likely will not have much of an impact on the bond market or mortgage pricing. It is the least important of this week’s data.
The first important piece of data is the release of April’s Retail Sales early Wednesday morning. This is an extremely important report for the financial markets as it measures consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, this data can have a pretty significant impact on the markets. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.1% decline in sales from March to April. A weaker than expected level of sales should push bond prices higher and mortgage rates lower Wednesday. However, a larger increase could fuel bond selling and lead to higher mortgage rates.
The second important report of the week is April’s Producer Price Index (PPI) early Thursday morning, which helps us measure inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. If this report reveals weaker than expected readings, indicating inflation is not a concern at the producer level, we should see the bond and stock markets rally. The overall index is expected to show an increase of 0.1%, while the core data that excludes food and energy prices is also expected to rise 0.1%. A smaller than expected increase in the core data would be ideal for mortgage shoppers. There are three relevant reports scheduled to be posted Friday. The first is the week’s most important. April’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be posted at 8:30 AM. It is similar to Thursday’s PPI report, but measures inflationary pressures at the more important consumer level of the economy. Its results will be watched closely and can lead to significant volatility in the bond market and mortgage pricing. Current forecasts are calling for no change in the overall index and a 0.1% increase in the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two since it excludes more volatile food and energy prices.
April’s Industrial Production is Friday’s second relevant report. It measures manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is expected to show a 0.6% decline in production, indicating that manufacturing activity is slowing rapidly. A larger decline in output would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates because it would indicate that the manufacturing sector is weaker than expected. The last report of the week is May's preliminary reading to the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and usually has a moderate impact on the financial markets. It is expected to show a reading of 65.0, which would be little change from last month’s final reading. If it shows a decline in consumer confidence, bond prices will likely rise, assuming the CPI does not give us a significant surprise.
Overall, it likely will be a pretty active week for mortgage rates. Besides the week’s important economic news, look for the stock markets to be a major influence on trading. The most important day of the week is Friday with three reports on the agenda, including the CPI. But Wednesday is important due to the Retail Sales report. I am expecting to see several noticeable changes to rates this week, and would not be surprised to see multiple intra-day revisions also. Accordingly, please be attentive to the markets if still floating an interest rate.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
There are several important pieces of economic news scheduled for release this week, but three stand out above the others. There are a total of six reports scheduled, so it can be considered a fairly active week. There is no relevant data due out tomorrow, so expect the stock markets to help drive bond trading and mortgage rates.
March’s Goods and Services Trade Balance report will be released early Tuesday morning. This report gives us the size of the U.S. trade deficit but likely will not have much of an impact on the bond market or mortgage pricing. It is the least important of this week’s data.
The first important piece of data is the release of April’s Retail Sales early Wednesday morning. This is an extremely important report for the financial markets as it measures consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, this data can have a pretty significant impact on the markets. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.1% decline in sales from March to April. A weaker than expected level of sales should push bond prices higher and mortgage rates lower Wednesday. However, a larger increase could fuel bond selling and lead to higher mortgage rates.
The second important report of the week is April’s Producer Price Index (PPI) early Thursday morning, which helps us measure inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. If this report reveals weaker than expected readings, indicating inflation is not a concern at the producer level, we should see the bond and stock markets rally. The overall index is expected to show an increase of 0.1%, while the core data that excludes food and energy prices is also expected to rise 0.1%. A smaller than expected increase in the core data would be ideal for mortgage shoppers. There are three relevant reports scheduled to be posted Friday. The first is the week’s most important. April’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be posted at 8:30 AM. It is similar to Thursday’s PPI report, but measures inflationary pressures at the more important consumer level of the economy. Its results will be watched closely and can lead to significant volatility in the bond market and mortgage pricing. Current forecasts are calling for no change in the overall index and a 0.1% increase in the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two since it excludes more volatile food and energy prices.
April’s Industrial Production is Friday’s second relevant report. It measures manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is expected to show a 0.6% decline in production, indicating that manufacturing activity is slowing rapidly. A larger decline in output would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates because it would indicate that the manufacturing sector is weaker than expected. The last report of the week is May's preliminary reading to the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and usually has a moderate impact on the financial markets. It is expected to show a reading of 65.0, which would be little change from last month’s final reading. If it shows a decline in consumer confidence, bond prices will likely rise, assuming the CPI does not give us a significant surprise.
Overall, it likely will be a pretty active week for mortgage rates. Besides the week’s important economic news, look for the stock markets to be a major influence on trading. The most important day of the week is Friday with three reports on the agenda, including the CPI. But Wednesday is important due to the Retail Sales report. I am expecting to see several noticeable changes to rates this week, and would not be surprised to see multiple intra-day revisions also. Accordingly, please be attentive to the markets if still floating an interest rate.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Friday, May 8, 2009
Mortgage Rate Advisory 05-08-2009
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
Friday’s bond market has opened in positive territory despite a stronger than expected reading in today’s Employment report. The stock markets are reacting favorable also with the Dow up 76 points and the Nasdaq up 6 points. The bond market is currently up 12/32, but we will still see an increase in this morning’s rates of approximately .125 of a discount point due to weakness in bonds late yesterday.
The Labor Department reported this morning that the U.S. unemployment rate rose to a 25-year high of 8.9% last month. They also reported that 539,000 jobs were lost during the month, falling short of the 600,000 jobs that latest forecasts had predicted. This was the fewest number of lost jobs since October, giving hope that the shedding may be slowing. The average hourly earnings reading rose 0.1%, when analysts were expecting a 0.2% increase. Overall, the report gave us mixed results on the status of the labor market, but bonds and stocks have reacted favorably to its results.
Next week is very busy with many relevant economic reports on the calendar. There is nothing of importance scheduled for release Monday or Tuesday, but the rest of the week brings us a couple of key inflation readings, an important measurement of consumer spending and a reading on industrial output.
I am expecting to see a fairly calm day Monday unless we get some relevant news over the weekend. But the middle and latter parts of the week will probably be extremely active with several key reports being posted over three trading days. Look for details on next week’s events in Sunday’s weekly preview, but expect to see some volatility late next week.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now.... ©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Friday’s bond market has opened in positive territory despite a stronger than expected reading in today’s Employment report. The stock markets are reacting favorable also with the Dow up 76 points and the Nasdaq up 6 points. The bond market is currently up 12/32, but we will still see an increase in this morning’s rates of approximately .125 of a discount point due to weakness in bonds late yesterday.
The Labor Department reported this morning that the U.S. unemployment rate rose to a 25-year high of 8.9% last month. They also reported that 539,000 jobs were lost during the month, falling short of the 600,000 jobs that latest forecasts had predicted. This was the fewest number of lost jobs since October, giving hope that the shedding may be slowing. The average hourly earnings reading rose 0.1%, when analysts were expecting a 0.2% increase. Overall, the report gave us mixed results on the status of the labor market, but bonds and stocks have reacted favorably to its results.
Next week is very busy with many relevant economic reports on the calendar. There is nothing of importance scheduled for release Monday or Tuesday, but the rest of the week brings us a couple of key inflation readings, an important measurement of consumer spending and a reading on industrial output.
I am expecting to see a fairly calm day Monday unless we get some relevant news over the weekend. But the middle and latter parts of the week will probably be extremely active with several key reports being posted over three trading days. Look for details on next week’s events in Sunday’s weekly preview, but expect to see some volatility late next week.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now.... ©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Thursday, May 7, 2009
Mortgage Rate Advisory- 05/07/09
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
Thursday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following the release of stronger than expected economic data and early stock gains. The stock markets are showing moderate strength during early trading with the Dow up 53 points and the Nasdaq up 10 points. The bond market is currently down 13/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point compared to yesterday’s morning rates.
The Labor Department gave us both of this morning’s releases. The more important of the two was the 1st Quarter Productivity and Costs data that revealed a larger than expected 0.8% increase in worker output. The bad news came from the Unit Labor Costs reading that showed a 3.3% increase. That was higher than the 2.7% that was forecasted, meaning employer costs were higher than thought. Higher costs can translate to wage inflation concerns, therefore, this portion of the report is a negative for bonds.
The second bit of news was last week’s unemployment figures. It showed that 601,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This is a three month low and was well below forecasts of 635,000, but fortunately this data is not considered to be highly influential on mortgage rates. However, it does raise additional concern about tomorrow’s monthly report.
Yesterday’s 10-year Note sale was met with a decent demand from investors. That led to improvements in bonds during afternoon trading yesterday and some lenders to revise mortgage pricing lower. The Treasury will sell 30-year Bonds today, posting the results at 1:30 PM ET. Another round of strong bidding could cause bonds to get back some of this morning’s earlier losses. However, I suspect that most mortgage lenders will wait until tomorrow’s big news rather than revising their rates this afternoon.
Tomorrow morning brings us the release of the almighty Employment report, giving us April’s employment statistics. This is where we may see a huge rally or major sell-off in the bond market and large changes in mortgage rates. The ideal situation for the bond and mortgage markets would be a larger than expected increase in the unemployment rate and more payrolls lost during the month than was expected.
It could turn out to be a wonderful day in the mortgage market tomrrow, but it also carries risks of seeing mortgage rates move higher if the Labor Department posts stronger than expected readings. Current forecasts are calling for an 8.9% unemployment rate and approximately 620,000 jobs lost during the month.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... ©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Thursday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following the release of stronger than expected economic data and early stock gains. The stock markets are showing moderate strength during early trading with the Dow up 53 points and the Nasdaq up 10 points. The bond market is currently down 13/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point compared to yesterday’s morning rates.
The Labor Department gave us both of this morning’s releases. The more important of the two was the 1st Quarter Productivity and Costs data that revealed a larger than expected 0.8% increase in worker output. The bad news came from the Unit Labor Costs reading that showed a 3.3% increase. That was higher than the 2.7% that was forecasted, meaning employer costs were higher than thought. Higher costs can translate to wage inflation concerns, therefore, this portion of the report is a negative for bonds.
The second bit of news was last week’s unemployment figures. It showed that 601,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This is a three month low and was well below forecasts of 635,000, but fortunately this data is not considered to be highly influential on mortgage rates. However, it does raise additional concern about tomorrow’s monthly report.
Yesterday’s 10-year Note sale was met with a decent demand from investors. That led to improvements in bonds during afternoon trading yesterday and some lenders to revise mortgage pricing lower. The Treasury will sell 30-year Bonds today, posting the results at 1:30 PM ET. Another round of strong bidding could cause bonds to get back some of this morning’s earlier losses. However, I suspect that most mortgage lenders will wait until tomorrow’s big news rather than revising their rates this afternoon.
Tomorrow morning brings us the release of the almighty Employment report, giving us April’s employment statistics. This is where we may see a huge rally or major sell-off in the bond market and large changes in mortgage rates. The ideal situation for the bond and mortgage markets would be a larger than expected increase in the unemployment rate and more payrolls lost during the month than was expected.
It could turn out to be a wonderful day in the mortgage market tomrrow, but it also carries risks of seeing mortgage rates move higher if the Labor Department posts stronger than expected readings. Current forecasts are calling for an 8.9% unemployment rate and approximately 620,000 jobs lost during the month.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... ©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Monday, May 4, 2009
Mortgage Rate Advisory-05/04/2009
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
Monday’s bond market has opened down slightly following early stock gains. The stock markets are starting the week in positive territory with the Dow up 93 points and the Nasdaq up 16 points. The bond market is currently down 4/32, but we will likely still see a slight improvement to mortgage rates due to strength in bonds late Friday.
There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. The week is very light in terms of the number of scheduled economic releases. However, we may still have an active week in the markets and mortgage rates due to the importance of the data that is being released and the other events on the calendar. There are only two reports scheduled that are worth watching, but one of them is highly important to bonds and mortgage rates.
The first event of the week will be testimony of Fed Chairman Bernanke as he speaks before a Joint Economic Committee late tomorrow morning. The topic will be the economy and the Fed’s outlook for future activity. Market participants will be watching his words closely, which means that we will likely see some volatility in trading as he speaks. He will begin at 10:00 AM ET, so look for fluctuations in the markets during late morning trading and potential revisions to rates early afternoon.
The Labor Department will release its 1st Quarter Productivity and Costs data early Thursday morning and April’s Employment figures Friday morning. Thursday’s report is fairly important, but Friday’s data is one of the most important reports we see each month.
In addition to this week’s economic data, we also have Treasury auctions that can influence bond trading and affect mortgage rates. The Treasury will hold a 10-year Note sale Wednesday and a 30-year Bond sale Thursday. Results of the auctions will be posted at 1:30 PM ET each day. If they were met with a strong demand from investors, we could see bond prices rise enough during afternoon trading to cause downward revisions to mortgage rates. However, lackluster bidding could lead to higher mortgage pricing those afternoons.
Overall, I am expecting to see a fairly active week in mortgage rates. Expect to see movement in rates multiple days this week. Tomorrow’s speech and Friday’s Employment report will heavily influence trading, likely making them the most important days. However, Thursday’s data and Treasury auction may also lead to noticeable changes in rates. Accordingly, I would strongly recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional the next few days if still floating an interest rate.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Monday’s bond market has opened down slightly following early stock gains. The stock markets are starting the week in positive territory with the Dow up 93 points and the Nasdaq up 16 points. The bond market is currently down 4/32, but we will likely still see a slight improvement to mortgage rates due to strength in bonds late Friday.
There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. The week is very light in terms of the number of scheduled economic releases. However, we may still have an active week in the markets and mortgage rates due to the importance of the data that is being released and the other events on the calendar. There are only two reports scheduled that are worth watching, but one of them is highly important to bonds and mortgage rates.
The first event of the week will be testimony of Fed Chairman Bernanke as he speaks before a Joint Economic Committee late tomorrow morning. The topic will be the economy and the Fed’s outlook for future activity. Market participants will be watching his words closely, which means that we will likely see some volatility in trading as he speaks. He will begin at 10:00 AM ET, so look for fluctuations in the markets during late morning trading and potential revisions to rates early afternoon.
The Labor Department will release its 1st Quarter Productivity and Costs data early Thursday morning and April’s Employment figures Friday morning. Thursday’s report is fairly important, but Friday’s data is one of the most important reports we see each month.
In addition to this week’s economic data, we also have Treasury auctions that can influence bond trading and affect mortgage rates. The Treasury will hold a 10-year Note sale Wednesday and a 30-year Bond sale Thursday. Results of the auctions will be posted at 1:30 PM ET each day. If they were met with a strong demand from investors, we could see bond prices rise enough during afternoon trading to cause downward revisions to mortgage rates. However, lackluster bidding could lead to higher mortgage pricing those afternoons.
Overall, I am expecting to see a fairly active week in mortgage rates. Expect to see movement in rates multiple days this week. Tomorrow’s speech and Friday’s Employment report will heavily influence trading, likely making them the most important days. However, Thursday’s data and Treasury auction may also lead to noticeable changes in rates. Accordingly, I would strongly recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional the next few days if still floating an interest rate.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Mortgage Rate Advisory- Week of 5/3/09
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
This week is very light in terms of the number of economic releases that are scheduled to be posted. However, we may still have an active week in the markets and mortgage rates due to the importance of the data that is being released and the other events on the calendar. There are only two reports scheduled that are worth watching, but one of them is highly important to bonds and mortgage rates.
The first event of the week will be testimony of Fed Chairman Bernanke as he speaks before a Joint Economic Committee Tuesday morning. The topic will be the economy and the Fed’s outlook for future activity. Market participants will be watching his words closely, which means that we will likely see some volatility in trading as he speaks. He will begin at 10:00 AM ET, so look for fluctuations in the markets during late morning trading and potential revisions to rates early afternoon.
The Labor Department will release its 1st Quarter Productivity and Costs data early Thursday morning. This information helps us measure employee productivity in the workplace. High levels of productivity help allow low-inflationary economic growth. If employee productivity is rising, the bond market should react favorably. However, a decrease could cause bond prices to drop and mortgage rates to rise Thursday morning. It is expected to show a 0.9% increase in productivity and a 2.5% increase in the labor costs reading.
Friday brings us the release of the almighty Employment report, giving us April’s employment statistics. This is where we may see a huge rally or major sell-off in the bond market and large changes in mortgage rates. The ideal situation for the bond and mortgage markets would be a larger than expected increase in the unemployment rate and more payrolls lost during the month than was expected.
Just how much of an improvement or worsening in rates depends on how much variance there is between forecasts and actual readings. This could turn out to be a wonderful day in the mortgage market, but it also carries risks of seeing mortgage rates move higher if the Labor Department posts stronger than expected readings. Current forecasts are calling for an 8.9% unemployment rate and approximately 620,000 jobs lost during the month. In addition to this week’s economic data, we also have Treasury auctions that can influence bond trading and affect mortgage rates. The Treasury will hold a 10-year Note sale Wednesday and a 30-year Bond sale Thursday. Results of the auctions will be posted at 1:30 PM ET each day. If they were met with a strong demand from investors, we could see bond prices rise enough during afternoon trading to cause downward revisions to mortgage rates. However, lackluster bidding could lead to higher mortgage pricing those afternoons.
Overall, I am expecting to see a fairly active week in mortgage rates. Tomorrow will probably be the lightest day with no relevant data or events scheduled, but expect to see movement in rates multiple days this week. Tuesday’s speech and Friday’s Employment report will heavily influence trading, likely making them the most important days. However, Thursday’s data and Treasury auction may also lead to noticeable changes in rates. Accordingly, I would strongly recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional the next few days if still floating an interest rate.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
This week is very light in terms of the number of economic releases that are scheduled to be posted. However, we may still have an active week in the markets and mortgage rates due to the importance of the data that is being released and the other events on the calendar. There are only two reports scheduled that are worth watching, but one of them is highly important to bonds and mortgage rates.
The first event of the week will be testimony of Fed Chairman Bernanke as he speaks before a Joint Economic Committee Tuesday morning. The topic will be the economy and the Fed’s outlook for future activity. Market participants will be watching his words closely, which means that we will likely see some volatility in trading as he speaks. He will begin at 10:00 AM ET, so look for fluctuations in the markets during late morning trading and potential revisions to rates early afternoon.
The Labor Department will release its 1st Quarter Productivity and Costs data early Thursday morning. This information helps us measure employee productivity in the workplace. High levels of productivity help allow low-inflationary economic growth. If employee productivity is rising, the bond market should react favorably. However, a decrease could cause bond prices to drop and mortgage rates to rise Thursday morning. It is expected to show a 0.9% increase in productivity and a 2.5% increase in the labor costs reading.
Friday brings us the release of the almighty Employment report, giving us April’s employment statistics. This is where we may see a huge rally or major sell-off in the bond market and large changes in mortgage rates. The ideal situation for the bond and mortgage markets would be a larger than expected increase in the unemployment rate and more payrolls lost during the month than was expected.
Just how much of an improvement or worsening in rates depends on how much variance there is between forecasts and actual readings. This could turn out to be a wonderful day in the mortgage market, but it also carries risks of seeing mortgage rates move higher if the Labor Department posts stronger than expected readings. Current forecasts are calling for an 8.9% unemployment rate and approximately 620,000 jobs lost during the month. In addition to this week’s economic data, we also have Treasury auctions that can influence bond trading and affect mortgage rates. The Treasury will hold a 10-year Note sale Wednesday and a 30-year Bond sale Thursday. Results of the auctions will be posted at 1:30 PM ET each day. If they were met with a strong demand from investors, we could see bond prices rise enough during afternoon trading to cause downward revisions to mortgage rates. However, lackluster bidding could lead to higher mortgage pricing those afternoons.
Overall, I am expecting to see a fairly active week in mortgage rates. Tomorrow will probably be the lightest day with no relevant data or events scheduled, but expect to see movement in rates multiple days this week. Tuesday’s speech and Friday’s Employment report will heavily influence trading, likely making them the most important days. However, Thursday’s data and Treasury auction may also lead to noticeable changes in rates. Accordingly, I would strongly recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional the next few days if still floating an interest rate.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
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