Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
Friday’s bond market has opened in positive territory after this morning’s economic news failed to give us any significant surprises. The stock markets are showing minor losses with the Dow down 18 points and the Nasdaq down 5 points. The bond market is currently up 10/32, which should improve this morning's rates by approximately .250 - .375 of a discount point.
The more important of today’s two reports was the revision to the 1st quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It showed that the economy contracted at an annual pace of 5.7% during the first three months of the year. This was an upward revision from the previous estimate, but was slightly weaker than the 5.5% decline that was forecasted. This means that economic activity was stronger than previously announced, but was not as strong as analysts' revised forecasts. This basically is good news for bonds, however, the amount of the variance was not enough to heavily influence trading or mortgage pricing this morning.
The University of Michigan updated their Index of Consumer Sentiment for May late this morning. They said the index stood at 68.7 compared to the 67.9 that was previously announced. This means that consumers were a little more optimistic about their own financial situations than was expected. That can be considered negative news for bonds, but as with the GDP revision, the results were not enough to affect mortgage rates.
Next week is packed with relevant economic data for the markets to digest. It begins with two reports Monday morning that are relevant to bonds and mortgage pricing. Early Monday morning we will see April’s Personal Income and Outlays data that will give us a measurement of consumers’ ability to spend and their current spending habits. It is expected to show a decline in both readings.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will post their manufacturing index late Monday morning. This is a fairly important report because it measure manufacturer sentiment. It is expected to show a slight increase from March’s reading, indicating that more surveyed manufacturers felt business improved this month than the last month.
Look for more details on next week’s data and events in Sunday’s weekly preview. It will likely be a pretty active week for mortgage rates with relevant data being posted four out of the five days.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Friday, May 29, 2009
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
Mortgage Rate Commentary-05/26/2009
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
Tuesday’s bond market opened in positive territory but has since slipped into negative ground after today’s only relevant economic data showed a much higher than expected reading. The stock markets are rallying with the Dow up 170 points and the Nasdaq up 46 points. The bond market is currently down 3/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.
The Conference Board gave us the news that is pressuring bonds and boosting stocks. They said late this morning that their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) spiked to 54.9 this month, greatly exceeding forecasts. Analysts were expecting to see a reading of approximately 42.0, meaning that consumers were much more optimistic about their own financial situations than many had thought. This is negative news for bonds because rising confidence usually translates into higher level of consumer spending, which fuels the economy.
The National Association of Realtors will give us the Existing Home Sales report late tomorrow morning. This data tracks resales of homes in the U.S., giving us a measurement of housing sector strength. However, it is not considered to be of much importance to the bond market unless it varies greatly from forecasts. Current forecasts are calling for a small increase in sales between March and April.
Overall, I think we have a busy week ahead of us. The big reports of the week were today’s CCI and Thursday’s Durable Goods Orders data. If Friday’s GDP revision varies greatly from forecasts, it can also lead to sizable changes in rates.
There are also a couple of Treasury auctions that are also worth noting. The 5-year sale Wednesday and the 7-year auction on Thursday may influence bond trading and possibly mortgage rates if they are met with an exceptional demand or if there is lackluster interest from investors. There is a pretty good possibility of seeing mortgage rates change several times this week, so please proceed cautiously if still floating an interest rate.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... ©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Tuesday’s bond market opened in positive territory but has since slipped into negative ground after today’s only relevant economic data showed a much higher than expected reading. The stock markets are rallying with the Dow up 170 points and the Nasdaq up 46 points. The bond market is currently down 3/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.
The Conference Board gave us the news that is pressuring bonds and boosting stocks. They said late this morning that their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) spiked to 54.9 this month, greatly exceeding forecasts. Analysts were expecting to see a reading of approximately 42.0, meaning that consumers were much more optimistic about their own financial situations than many had thought. This is negative news for bonds because rising confidence usually translates into higher level of consumer spending, which fuels the economy.
The National Association of Realtors will give us the Existing Home Sales report late tomorrow morning. This data tracks resales of homes in the U.S., giving us a measurement of housing sector strength. However, it is not considered to be of much importance to the bond market unless it varies greatly from forecasts. Current forecasts are calling for a small increase in sales between March and April.
Overall, I think we have a busy week ahead of us. The big reports of the week were today’s CCI and Thursday’s Durable Goods Orders data. If Friday’s GDP revision varies greatly from forecasts, it can also lead to sizable changes in rates.
There are also a couple of Treasury auctions that are also worth noting. The 5-year sale Wednesday and the 7-year auction on Thursday may influence bond trading and possibly mortgage rates if they are met with an exceptional demand or if there is lackluster interest from investors. There is a pretty good possibility of seeing mortgage rates change several times this week, so please proceed cautiously if still floating an interest rate.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... ©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
This weeks mortgage market
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
This holiday shortened week brings us the release of six important economic reports or news releases. Two of the six are considered to be of fairly high importance to the bond market and mortgage pricing. The remaining reports are considered to be of moderate importance to the markets. The financial and mortgage markets are closed today in observance of the Memorial Day holiday and will reopen tomorrow morning.
The Conference Board will start the week’s releases by posting their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) at 10:00 AM tomorrow. This is one of the more important releases of the week because is measures consumer willingness to spend. If the index rises, it indicates that consumers feel better about their personal financial situations and are more apt to make large purchases. If confidence is sliding, analysts think consumer spending may slow in the near future. The latter is good news for the bond market because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. That should boost bond prices and push mortgage rates lower tomorrow morning. It is expected to show a reading of 42.0 after April’s 39.2 reading.
The National Association of Realtors will give us the Existing Home Sales report Wednesday morning. This data tracks resales of homes in the U.S., giving us a measurement of housing sector strength. However, it is not considered to be of much importance to the bond market unless it varies greatly from forecasts. Current forecasts are calling for a small increase in sales between March and April.
We will get two monthly reports Thursday morning. The more important of the two is April’s Durable Goods Orders data. This report gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories for big-ticket products. It is currently expected to show an increase in new orders of approximately 0.5%. If this report shows a stronger than expected reading, we should see mortgage rates rise because it indicates manufacturing growth. If it shows a smaller than expected rise, we could see rates improve Thursday morning. April’s New Home Sales data will be released late Thursday morning. This report gives us a measurement of housing sector strength and future mortgage credit demand. However, it is actually the least important release of the week and probably will not have much of an impact on mortgage pricing. It is expected to show a small increase in sales.
The first of two revisions to the 1st quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be released at 8:30 AM Friday. The second revision to this report comes next month but isn't expected to have much of an impact on the financial markets. The GDP is the sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and is considered to be the best indicator of economic growth. Last month's preliminary reading revealed a 6.1% decline in the annual rate of growth. Analysts expect an upward revision to this reading with the consensus being a 5.5% decline. If the upward revision is stronger than expected, we may see the bond market react negatively and mortgage rates move higher. The second report of the day and the last important data of the week will come from the University of Michigan who will update their Index of Consumer Sentiment for May. It is forecasted to show little change from this month’s preliminary reading of 67.9. An upward revision would be considered a negative for bonds.
Overall, I think we have a busy week ahead of us. With the markets closed today, Tuesday’s data will set the tone for the first part of the week. The big reports of the week are Tuesday’s CCI and Thursday’s Durable Goods. If Friday’s GDP revision varies greatly from forecasts, it can also lead to sizable changes in rates. There are also a couple of Treasury auctions that are worth noting. The 5-year sale Wednesday and the 7-year auction on Thursday may influence bond trading and possibly mortgage rates if they are met with an exceptional demand or if there is lackluster interest from investors. There is a pretty good possibility of seeing mortgage rates change several times this week, so please proceed cautiously if still floating an interest rate.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
This holiday shortened week brings us the release of six important economic reports or news releases. Two of the six are considered to be of fairly high importance to the bond market and mortgage pricing. The remaining reports are considered to be of moderate importance to the markets. The financial and mortgage markets are closed today in observance of the Memorial Day holiday and will reopen tomorrow morning.
The Conference Board will start the week’s releases by posting their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) at 10:00 AM tomorrow. This is one of the more important releases of the week because is measures consumer willingness to spend. If the index rises, it indicates that consumers feel better about their personal financial situations and are more apt to make large purchases. If confidence is sliding, analysts think consumer spending may slow in the near future. The latter is good news for the bond market because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. That should boost bond prices and push mortgage rates lower tomorrow morning. It is expected to show a reading of 42.0 after April’s 39.2 reading.
The National Association of Realtors will give us the Existing Home Sales report Wednesday morning. This data tracks resales of homes in the U.S., giving us a measurement of housing sector strength. However, it is not considered to be of much importance to the bond market unless it varies greatly from forecasts. Current forecasts are calling for a small increase in sales between March and April.
We will get two monthly reports Thursday morning. The more important of the two is April’s Durable Goods Orders data. This report gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories for big-ticket products. It is currently expected to show an increase in new orders of approximately 0.5%. If this report shows a stronger than expected reading, we should see mortgage rates rise because it indicates manufacturing growth. If it shows a smaller than expected rise, we could see rates improve Thursday morning. April’s New Home Sales data will be released late Thursday morning. This report gives us a measurement of housing sector strength and future mortgage credit demand. However, it is actually the least important release of the week and probably will not have much of an impact on mortgage pricing. It is expected to show a small increase in sales.
The first of two revisions to the 1st quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be released at 8:30 AM Friday. The second revision to this report comes next month but isn't expected to have much of an impact on the financial markets. The GDP is the sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and is considered to be the best indicator of economic growth. Last month's preliminary reading revealed a 6.1% decline in the annual rate of growth. Analysts expect an upward revision to this reading with the consensus being a 5.5% decline. If the upward revision is stronger than expected, we may see the bond market react negatively and mortgage rates move higher. The second report of the day and the last important data of the week will come from the University of Michigan who will update their Index of Consumer Sentiment for May. It is forecasted to show little change from this month’s preliminary reading of 67.9. An upward revision would be considered a negative for bonds.
Overall, I think we have a busy week ahead of us. With the markets closed today, Tuesday’s data will set the tone for the first part of the week. The big reports of the week are Tuesday’s CCI and Thursday’s Durable Goods. If Friday’s GDP revision varies greatly from forecasts, it can also lead to sizable changes in rates. There are also a couple of Treasury auctions that are worth noting. The 5-year sale Wednesday and the 7-year auction on Thursday may influence bond trading and possibly mortgage rates if they are met with an exceptional demand or if there is lackluster interest from investors. There is a pretty good possibility of seeing mortgage rates change several times this week, so please proceed cautiously if still floating an interest rate.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Friday, May 22, 2009
Mortgage Rate Commentary-05/22/2009
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
Friday's bond market opened in well in negative territory as the selling continues into the long weekend. The stock markets are in positive territory with the Dow up 67 points and the Nasdaq up 7 points. The bond market is currently down 16/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 to .250 of a discount point.
There is no relevant data scheduled for release today. The negative tone in bonds is a carryover from yesterday’s announcement of $100 billion in new debt being sold by the Fed. This was more than expected and led to selling of current securities. The result was a significant loss to bonds during afternoon trading.
The bond market will close at 2:00 PM ET ahead of the Memorial Day Holiday Monday. All the financial markets will be closed Monday and will reopen Tuesday morning. These early closes sometimes lead to additional volatility in bond prices as investors prepare for the long weekend and trading thins with many traders starting the weekend early, but after this morning’s losses I don’t think we will see enough of a change to push mortgage rates any higher today.
Next week is fairly busy with economic reports scheduled for release every trading day. Some of the reports are fairly important, but none are considered extremely important. Look for more details on next week’s events in Sunday’s weekly preview.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Friday's bond market opened in well in negative territory as the selling continues into the long weekend. The stock markets are in positive territory with the Dow up 67 points and the Nasdaq up 7 points. The bond market is currently down 16/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 to .250 of a discount point.
There is no relevant data scheduled for release today. The negative tone in bonds is a carryover from yesterday’s announcement of $100 billion in new debt being sold by the Fed. This was more than expected and led to selling of current securities. The result was a significant loss to bonds during afternoon trading.
The bond market will close at 2:00 PM ET ahead of the Memorial Day Holiday Monday. All the financial markets will be closed Monday and will reopen Tuesday morning. These early closes sometimes lead to additional volatility in bond prices as investors prepare for the long weekend and trading thins with many traders starting the weekend early, but after this morning’s losses I don’t think we will see enough of a change to push mortgage rates any higher today.
Next week is fairly busy with economic reports scheduled for release every trading day. Some of the reports are fairly important, but none are considered extremely important. Look for more details on next week’s events in Sunday’s weekly preview.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Thursday, May 21, 2009
Mortgage Rate Commentary- 05/21/2009
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
Thursday's bond market opened in positive territory but has since fallen well into negative ground. The stock markets are showing sizable losses with the Dow down 120 points and the Nasdaq down 34 points. The bond market is now down 26/32, but we will still see a slight improvement to this morning’s mortgage rates as a result of gains late yesterday. However, I would not be surprised to see upward rate revisions if bonds continue to remain weak today.
The Labor Department reported this morning that 631,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was a little higher than expected, but not nearly enough of a difference to influence this morning's mortgage rates.
April's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) was released late this morning, revealing an increase of 1.0%. This was a larger increase than was expected and indicates that the economy may grow at a decent pace of the next three to six months. But, this is only one indicator and does not mean that the economy is going to rebound quickly. Still, the news is considered negative for bonds and mortgage rates.
The turnaround in bonds came after the Fed said that $100 billion in new debt will be sold in the immediate future. This was more than expected and makes current Treasury securities less appealing to investors. That has led to selling during late morning trading as traders prepare for those sales.
There is no relevant data scheduled for release tomorrow, but the bond market will close at 2:00 PM ET ahead of the Memorial Day Holiday Monday. All the financial markets will be closed Monday and will reopen Tuesday morning. These early closes sometimes lead to additional volatility in bond prices as investors prepare for the long weekend and trading thins with many traders starting the weekend early.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Thursday's bond market opened in positive territory but has since fallen well into negative ground. The stock markets are showing sizable losses with the Dow down 120 points and the Nasdaq down 34 points. The bond market is now down 26/32, but we will still see a slight improvement to this morning’s mortgage rates as a result of gains late yesterday. However, I would not be surprised to see upward rate revisions if bonds continue to remain weak today.
The Labor Department reported this morning that 631,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was a little higher than expected, but not nearly enough of a difference to influence this morning's mortgage rates.
April's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) was released late this morning, revealing an increase of 1.0%. This was a larger increase than was expected and indicates that the economy may grow at a decent pace of the next three to six months. But, this is only one indicator and does not mean that the economy is going to rebound quickly. Still, the news is considered negative for bonds and mortgage rates.
The turnaround in bonds came after the Fed said that $100 billion in new debt will be sold in the immediate future. This was more than expected and makes current Treasury securities less appealing to investors. That has led to selling during late morning trading as traders prepare for those sales.
There is no relevant data scheduled for release tomorrow, but the bond market will close at 2:00 PM ET ahead of the Memorial Day Holiday Monday. All the financial markets will be closed Monday and will reopen Tuesday morning. These early closes sometimes lead to additional volatility in bond prices as investors prepare for the long weekend and trading thins with many traders starting the weekend early.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
Mortgage Market Commentary- 05/20/2009
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: The bond market has improved noticeably during afternoon trading after traders were able to digest the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. Those minutes revealed that the Fed has revised their economic outlook lower from previous estimates. They indicated that the U.S. unemployment rate is likely reach somewhere between 9.2% and 9.6% this year. They had previously predicted an 8.5% to 8.8% range, meaning the labor market is worse off than previously thought.
They also said that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is the total of all goods and services produced on the U.S. and the best measurement of economic activity, will likely fall 1.3% - 2.0% this year. They had said previously that a drop between 0.5% and 1.3% was likely. This means that overall economic activity will likely be lower this year than their previous forecasts had called for.
Both of these revisions are good news for bonds. A weak labor market usually coincides with a weak economy. During a soft economic environment, bonds and mortgage related securities become more appealing to investors. This usually drives bond prices higher and mortgage rates lower.
The impact this news had on today’s markets was favorable to mortgage borrowers. The stock markets fell with the Dow closing down almost 53 points and the Nasdaq down almost 7 points, while the bond market rallied to close up 16/32. The result should be an improvement in this afternoon’s mortgage rates of approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point. Some lenders may opt to wait until tomorrow morning to reflect those improvements, but many will likely revise lower today.
The Labor Department will post weekly unemployment figures early tomorrow morning. They are expected to say that 640,000 new claims for benefits were filed. This data is not considered to be important, so unless it varies greatly from analysts’ forecasts, it likely will not influence mortgage rates.
The last data of the week comes late tomorrow morning with the release of April’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) at 10:00 AM ET. This Conference Board report attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months. It is expected to show a fairly large increase of 0.6% from March’s reading, meaning that economic activity is likely to gain momentum during the next few months. A decline would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates, while a larger increase could cause mortgage rates to inch higher tomorrow.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: The bond market has improved noticeably during afternoon trading after traders were able to digest the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. Those minutes revealed that the Fed has revised their economic outlook lower from previous estimates. They indicated that the U.S. unemployment rate is likely reach somewhere between 9.2% and 9.6% this year. They had previously predicted an 8.5% to 8.8% range, meaning the labor market is worse off than previously thought.
They also said that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is the total of all goods and services produced on the U.S. and the best measurement of economic activity, will likely fall 1.3% - 2.0% this year. They had said previously that a drop between 0.5% and 1.3% was likely. This means that overall economic activity will likely be lower this year than their previous forecasts had called for.
Both of these revisions are good news for bonds. A weak labor market usually coincides with a weak economy. During a soft economic environment, bonds and mortgage related securities become more appealing to investors. This usually drives bond prices higher and mortgage rates lower.
The impact this news had on today’s markets was favorable to mortgage borrowers. The stock markets fell with the Dow closing down almost 53 points and the Nasdaq down almost 7 points, while the bond market rallied to close up 16/32. The result should be an improvement in this afternoon’s mortgage rates of approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point. Some lenders may opt to wait until tomorrow morning to reflect those improvements, but many will likely revise lower today.
The Labor Department will post weekly unemployment figures early tomorrow morning. They are expected to say that 640,000 new claims for benefits were filed. This data is not considered to be important, so unless it varies greatly from analysts’ forecasts, it likely will not influence mortgage rates.
The last data of the week comes late tomorrow morning with the release of April’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) at 10:00 AM ET. This Conference Board report attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months. It is expected to show a fairly large increase of 0.6% from March’s reading, meaning that economic activity is likely to gain momentum during the next few months. A decline would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates, while a larger increase could cause mortgage rates to inch higher tomorrow.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Mortgage Rate Commentary 05/13/2009
Here's your Daily Commentary report compliments of Jeff Drew and Star Mortgage!
Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following a much weaker than expected Retail Sales report. The stock markets are showing sizable losses with the Dow down 159 points and the Nasdaq down 26 points. The bond market is currently up 14/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point.
The Commerce Department reported this morning that sales at retail establishments fell 0.4% last month. This was much lower than the 0.1% decline that was expected and indicates that consumer spending is softening. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, today’s report hints that an economy recovery may not be as soon as some analysts had thought. That is good news for bonds and mortgage rates because slowing economic activity makes bonds and mortgage related securities more attractive to investors.
Tomorrow morning also brings us an important economic report with the release of April’s Producer Price Index (PPI). This index helps us measure inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. If it reveals weaker than expected readings, indicating inflation is not a concern at the producer level, we should see the bond and stock markets rally. The overall index is expected to show an increase of 0.1%, while the core data that excludes food and energy prices is also expected to rise 0.1%. A smaller than expected increase in the core data would be ideal for mortgage shoppers.
Also tomorrow will be the release of last week’s unemployment figures by the Labor Department. Last Thursday’s posting showed a sizable drop in new claims for unemployment benefits. Tomorrow’s release is expected to reveal 609,000 new claims were filed, which would be an increase of 8,000. However, this data is not nearly important as the PPI is and will likely not influence bond trading and mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts.
Friday brings us the release of three relevant reports, including the very important Consumer Price Index (CPI). The other two are moderately important to the markets, but the group of three combined can create a large amount of volatility in the markets if they reveal surprising results. But the CPI will be the primary report of the day.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following a much weaker than expected Retail Sales report. The stock markets are showing sizable losses with the Dow down 159 points and the Nasdaq down 26 points. The bond market is currently up 14/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point.
The Commerce Department reported this morning that sales at retail establishments fell 0.4% last month. This was much lower than the 0.1% decline that was expected and indicates that consumer spending is softening. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, today’s report hints that an economy recovery may not be as soon as some analysts had thought. That is good news for bonds and mortgage rates because slowing economic activity makes bonds and mortgage related securities more attractive to investors.
Tomorrow morning also brings us an important economic report with the release of April’s Producer Price Index (PPI). This index helps us measure inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. If it reveals weaker than expected readings, indicating inflation is not a concern at the producer level, we should see the bond and stock markets rally. The overall index is expected to show an increase of 0.1%, while the core data that excludes food and energy prices is also expected to rise 0.1%. A smaller than expected increase in the core data would be ideal for mortgage shoppers.
Also tomorrow will be the release of last week’s unemployment figures by the Labor Department. Last Thursday’s posting showed a sizable drop in new claims for unemployment benefits. Tomorrow’s release is expected to reveal 609,000 new claims were filed, which would be an increase of 8,000. However, this data is not nearly important as the PPI is and will likely not influence bond trading and mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts.
Friday brings us the release of three relevant reports, including the very important Consumer Price Index (CPI). The other two are moderately important to the markets, but the group of three combined can create a large amount of volatility in the markets if they reveal surprising results. But the CPI will be the primary report of the day.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
©Mortgage Commentary 2009
* Please note that if you have a mortgage rate and monthly payment you are comfortable with you may want to consider locking that rate. It is very difficult to predict the market in these very volatile times. Most lenders have a mortgage rate renegotiation policy. Contact me for details.
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